The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) today publishes its latest risk dashboard for the European Union’s securities markets, covering the first quarter of 2019. It finds that the risk landscape in Q1 2019 remains largely unchanged compared to the fourth quarter of 2018.
In Q1 2019 EU securities markets were characterised by stock market recovery, combined with higher liquidity in bond markets and low volatility levels. The key risk area remains a substantive overvaluation, as the significant market correction that occurred at the end of 2018 has been reversed since the start of 2019. Market risk therefore remains very high.
Investors’ long-standing expectations of interest rate rises have been adjusted according to recent announcements by key central banks. In addition, although the 10 April EU Council conclusions regarding the UK exit from the EU mitigated key no-deal Brexit risks in the short term, uncertainty about the terms of the UK exit still lingers.
Going forward, the subdued growth prospects for the EU and the global economy, global trade tensions, uncertainty surrounding the outcome of Brexit and the fading expectations of monetary policy normalisation continue as the most important drivers of risk in the coming months.